AUSTIN, Texas — Goldman Sachs has raised its second-quarter delivery forecast for Tesla, a vote of confidence in the automaker's momentum heading into its late-June reporting window. Analyst Mark Delaney lifted the bank's Q2 2026 estimate to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000, moving above the roughly 400,000-unit consensus.
The revision is driven by stronger-than-expected sales across several key regions. Tesla's global footprint is doing much of the heavy lifting, with Europe projected to post year-over-year growth of 85 to 90 percent on robust demand for the Model Y and refreshed offerings.
Strength Abroad Offsets U.S. Softness
China posted high-single-digit gains, while South Korea and Australia added positive momentum. Together, those markets help offset mid-teens declines in U.S. deliveries through May, where broader EV headwinds and competition have weighed on volumes. The picture reinforces a familiar Tesla strength: a worldwide sales base that smooths out regional swings.
Goldman extended its optimism to the full year, nudging its 2026 delivery projection to 1.73 million vehicles and raising its earnings-per-share estimate to $1.35 from $1.30, citing margin benefits from higher volumes and operational efficiencies. According to Teslarati, the bank kept its longer-term targets of 1.88 million units in 2027 and 1.96 million in 2028.
A Turning Point in View
The note adds to a series of analyst updates suggesting the second quarter could mark an inflection for Tesla's vehicle business after Q1 deliveries of 358,023 units. As production ramps at Fremont, Shanghai, and Berlin, sustained execution will be the key to validating the higher forecasts — and Tesla's recent run of strong sales months suggests the demand is there.
Beyond the Delivery Number
Tesla has increasingly framed deliveries as just one piece of a much larger story, with autonomy, energy storage, and AI moving to the center of its thesis. Even so, a Goldman beat would offer a tangible reminder that the core automotive engine remains healthy and globally competitive. With official Q2 figures due shortly after June 30, investors will be watching not only the headline number but regional breakdowns, pricing, and progress on the next chapter of Tesla's growth.
