Analysts Raise the Odds of a Tesla-SpaceX Combination

AUSTIN, Texas — The idea of merging Tesla and SpaceX into a single Elon Musk empire was once treated as fan speculation. It is now a mainstream Wall Street thesis, with a widening group of analysts assigning high odds to some form of combination and, in several cases, pointing to an announcement before the end of the year.

Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster, a longtime Tesla watcher, said he came into the company's second-quarter earnings call assuming an 80% chance the two firms come together within a few years — then raised that estimate to 90% afterward, adding that he was surprised the merger question was "even entertained" on the call. Wedbush's Dan Ives has similarly pegged the probability of a tie-up at 80% to 90% by early 2027. And on ARK Invest's podcast, chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous argued a combination remains likely, with Winton predicting an announcement "before the end of the year" even if the deal itself would take longer to close.

Musk Fuels the Overlap Talk

Musk has been careful not to confirm a deal, but he has done little to tamp down the logic behind it. Asked directly on the Q2 call, he pointed to the deepening ties between his companies: "As you can tell from all the many collaborations on so many fronts with SpaceX, there's more and more overlap, especially with Terafab," a reference to the joint Tesla-SpaceX-xAI chip project. He added only that combining companies "has got to be done with the appropriate process." That posture — acknowledging convergence while deferring on mechanics — is precisely what has emboldened analysts.

The strategic rationale is straightforward. SpaceX's public listing gave it shares to use as acquisition currency, and the two companies increasingly share technology, talent and AI infrastructure. ARK's team has argued that Tesla and SpaceX are "net better off" together, a view that meshes with the market's growing tendency to value Tesla around AI, energy and autonomy rather than cars alone.

Investors Are Already Positioning

Money is following the narrative. ARK's Cathie Wood has been steadily accumulating SpaceX shares, calling the company potentially "the most important company in history," while heavyweight backers keep building stakes — including Nvidia's disclosed multibillion-dollar SpaceX position. The merger chatter, and the specifics of the analyst forecasts, were detailed by CoinGape.

None of this guarantees a deal. Musk has flatly rejected reports of the internal restructuring some outlets described, and any combination would face complex logistics and regulatory scrutiny. But the direction of travel is clear: what was once dismissed as speculation has become a base case for a striking share of the Street. For shareholders of both companies, the question is increasingly not whether the Musk empire consolidates, but when — and on what terms.